Bryce McConnell-Barker Prospect Profile
Passes the name test so none of these stats matter, he's good
Just want to start off by saying that I love the Sykora pick but he is not in my database because I don’t have the Slovak pro league data, but if you get one of the youngest players in the draft who scores goals in a pro league, you take that and run at 63. The next player the Rangers selected is Bryce McConnell-Barker at 97, a strong two way center, but with my Prospect Viewer tool, we can delve a bit deeper into his production, and maybe discuss some signs of potential offensive growth. By the way I’m calling him BMB for the rest of this post.
MAIN PROFILE:
Here is BMB statistical profile and how it compares to the other 511 Draft Eligible, OHL Forwards since 2015. BMB is not an elite offensive player by any means, it is not like Dumais’ profile where his production ranked along the 1-5% in most categories. However, there is an importance in comparing his statistics/60 and how much ice time he actually gets. BMB is ranked 140th in total ice time per game, but his overall points per game is 106, so a bit better in the 20th percentile. The real potential is actually seen when we actually compare those per 60 stats, he was 96th in Shots/60 but 73rd in goals/60, he was 112th in Assists/60 but 46th in primary assists/60. This is interesting to me, he has been generating shots above his ice time, but also converting a bit more than his shots, his assists, are mostly primary and if he had a few more secondary as not the main playmaker his points per game would be much higher as well. As a matter of fact if you look at the first group of bar graphs, out of his 26 assists, 18 were even strength primary. He had 1 less primary assist on the power play than he had secondary even strength assists. According to my data, the average DY OHL Forward has 62.8% of their 5v5 assists being primary, with 18/22 BMB is at 81% (fun fact since 2015 it looks like most leagues hover around this number for the average 5v5 primary assist % even in varying DY+/- seasons. The average DY eligible OHL forward primary assist percentage at all strengths is 60% BMB is at 21/26, which remains at 81%.
TEAM BREAKDOWN
BMB is not the best playmaker or best goal scorer on his team, if he was trust me I’d be very excited but it should be noted that the guys ahead of him are much further along in their development and are likely leaving the team soon. Watson, Dickinson, and Kerins are all DY+2 and are eligible to go to the AHL, MacKay and Carrol as DY+3 are no longer eligible for the OHL, and suddenly BMB looks like the only top 6 forward who may return next season for the Soo, and with more ice time, hopefully the points can continue to grow, if he starts outproducing his increased ice time next year, then I would begin to say there was serious untapped offensive potential that may have been lost by just looking at points/game.
Also worth noting that BMB has has had a steady rise in his point production from February to the end of the season (OHL data was not available on pick224.com prior to February so we can’t see his early season numbers).
OFFENSIVE INFLUENCE
BMBs offensive influence this season was in the 78th percentile for all OHL forwards this season (including DY-2 → DY+3), much of which was carried by his high percentile in primary assists. His numbers were actually tanked a bit by his lack of ice time, and his evGF%REL. If we compare his Offensive influence to just the DY eligible players since 2015, BMB is near the 90th percentile.
In the 2022 season BMB ranks 5th among 1st year Draft eligible players in offensive influence above average (40%), however he seems to be where the next drop off happens. BMB depending on his growth over the next few seasons can help us maybe see what can be a critical value in offensive influence to be a possible decent chance NHL prospect.
Here are the OIA ranks in the OHL for 1st year draft eligible players since 2015, while there are some prime names below him like Jordan Kyrou and Alex Formenton who definitely seem to take explode developmentally, there are certainly some familiar names in the 60% and above group. Can we see BMB enter that group in the DY+1 or DY+2 season as he doesn’t get dragged down by his lower ice time, and maybe having less prominent scorers on the 1st line on his team, maybe but it does seem that as of right now BMB as a great playmaker is in that group of OHLers that are both success stories and “what happened to that guy”, essentially what you expect out of round 3.
COMPARISON TO HIS DRAFT ROUND - sorry about having to go between 2 images, his draft position was not updated so following my dictation would be ideal
Here are the average statistics of OHL draft eligible forwards and what round they tend to go in as well as BMB stats, so we can compare.
BMB TG/60 is 1.306 which is somewhere between the average 2nd rounder from the OHL at 1.42 and 3rd rounder 1.18 (4th round at 1.2 showing the minimal difference in those rounds). So far for a playmaker BMB is maybe even above his draft position at what was effectively a 4th round pick prior to Seattle entering the league.
BMB TA/60 is 1.475 which is between the 4th round at 1.58 and 5th round 1.18, but remember the first image where we see his primary assists are the main part of his total assists? Well his P1/60 is 2.49 which is between the average 1st rounder at 3.16 but more in line with the average 2nd rounder at 2.44.
His NHLe at 9.5 is around the average of 3rd rounder at 9.97, his Offensive influence at .4821 though is also more in line with the 2nd rounders at .49. Finally his SH/60 at 8.6 is closer to the average 2nd rounder who posts 8.95 than 7.10.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
The Rangers selection of a defensively responsible center, may have some untapped offensive potential if he continues to out play the ice time that he is given. He will likely be given more opportunity to be a more important forward for his team as the other forwards begin to graduate out of the league next season. His stats are more in line with a slightly below average 2nd rounder or a high 3rd than his 97th overall selection, as marginal as that may be but it is still value. He is by no means a slam dunk, but for a pick in the 90s, I believe there are enough signs to believe there may be more there, but at the same time, by looking at some players he was near in terms of offensive influence, I bet a lot of fans said the same things about some other players like Morgan Frost or Ty Dellandrea who albeit a better draft pedigree still haven’t taken off.
I think the Rangers did well in terms of pick value here, they have a really decent OHLer in terms of production, hopefully he does better but also maybe one day we can be able to quantify defensive value and get the whole picture because maybe his defensive value can make him a more legit prospect.
I’d give this pick a B+ given the pick he was selected in, and the fact that there is enough to be excited about, even if he isn’t as dynamic of a producer.